The "usefulness" of the Deflection Attribute
Posted: Thu May 26, 2016 10:48 am
I've been thinking about how useless this attribute is lately, partly because the 2D engine doesn't have any animation for it. So you'd never see one even if it happened. So I just went through the events_eng.cfg file to check what all the events in the Play-by-Play related to deflections are. There are a lot of them, several that make limited amounts of sense. But that is beside the point.
I then went through a full month of games (the ratios of the stats remained nearly static throughout the month, so I didn't see much need to do the whole season, since that would take forever)
As expected the conclusion was that you can ignore the deflection attribute, as well as the "scores from rebounds and deflections" scout snippet. Because a Whopping 1.69% of the goals scored were from players deflecting the puck in. Actually the best attribute for scoring from deflections isn't to be found on your players at all. It's on the oppositions defensemen, since they scored 7 times as many own goals from failed blocking attempts as the forwards did from the super impressive 21 attempted deflections across 760 shots. To sum up the findings from this limited sample size test:
Shots Attempted: 760
Shots deflected by defensemen: 78
Own goals from shots deflected by defensemen: 7
Shots deflected by forwards: 21
Goals from shots deflected by forwards: 1
If this were to remain across a much larger sample size, which it probably would do within a reasonable margin for error, you'd see something like 4 goals from deflections every 250 goals (Caps scored 248 this season) I couldn't find any stats readily avaliable for how many of those were deflections, but I think it's fair to say it was more than 4; since you won't be chocked to see a single NHL game with more deflection goals than 4.
Some funny things highlighting how well the match engine works were:
In one game, the same shot was deflected by the same Dman 2 times, a few games later the same shot was deflected by one Dman 3(!) times. That's some solid physics right there.
In another game a player fired a backhander, only to then deflect his own backhander in the following second. Meaning that he presumably shot it so slow he outskated it and then deflected it...or something. Working as intended!
Finally the singular goal scored from a deflection wasn't given to the player who deflected it. It was given to the original shooter, meaning I can't even prove with 100% certainty that a single deflection was scored. But the final event in the Play-by-Play before the goal was "The shot looked to have taken a deflection off <pl>" which is tied to the EVENT_RICOCHET_SHOT in events_eng.cfg so it probably means that even if a deflection goal is scored, it won't officially count as one anyways.
So in conclusion this means that I was right in feeling a bit hard done by whenever I saw a player gain +1 from Shooting training only to realize it was +1 Deflection. Almost as fun as when someone who isn't a Center gains +1 Faceoff from their Off. Skill training.
Naturally the samplesize is far, far too small to be irrefutable proof that the attribute is absolute trash. But it would need to improve so much over the remaining months to actually become useful. At just over 2 attempted deflections per game, even if a 20 deflection player would have a 100% chance to score from them (which he clearly won't) the chance of him being the person attempting them isn't exactly something you'd bet on. Very roughly estimated on a forward with 15min ice time he'd be on the ice for 1/4 of those deflections, and there'd be a 1/3 (3 forwards) that he be the one in position to actually deflect it, you end up with in the region of a 1/12 chance that the deflection attribute will even be used AT ALL. Also note that those 2 attempted deflections per game are for both teams combined. So he'd have a 1/12 chance to get to use the deflection attribute once per game. At that point even with 100% chance to score from it, the attribute would just be too insignificant to matter. Across an 82 game NHL season you'd look at about 7 attempts to deflect for that player. And since 1 deflection isn't a 0% chance to succeed, and 20 isn't a 100%, whatever difference in deflection there would be in between the two would ultimately be pretty pointless. Sure all goals help, but wouldn't you rather have that attribute point in Wristshot or Slapshot, you know those attributes your forwards actually use multiple times per game.
If anyone has had any luck using some form of tactical setup with funnel on the PP and overload slot with some kind of players that really excel at deflections, I'd love to hear about it. But really, it looks like this part of the game engine needs some love.
I then went through a full month of games (the ratios of the stats remained nearly static throughout the month, so I didn't see much need to do the whole season, since that would take forever)
As expected the conclusion was that you can ignore the deflection attribute, as well as the "scores from rebounds and deflections" scout snippet. Because a Whopping 1.69% of the goals scored were from players deflecting the puck in. Actually the best attribute for scoring from deflections isn't to be found on your players at all. It's on the oppositions defensemen, since they scored 7 times as many own goals from failed blocking attempts as the forwards did from the super impressive 21 attempted deflections across 760 shots. To sum up the findings from this limited sample size test:
Shots Attempted: 760
Shots deflected by defensemen: 78
Own goals from shots deflected by defensemen: 7
Shots deflected by forwards: 21
Goals from shots deflected by forwards: 1
If this were to remain across a much larger sample size, which it probably would do within a reasonable margin for error, you'd see something like 4 goals from deflections every 250 goals (Caps scored 248 this season) I couldn't find any stats readily avaliable for how many of those were deflections, but I think it's fair to say it was more than 4; since you won't be chocked to see a single NHL game with more deflection goals than 4.
Some funny things highlighting how well the match engine works were:
In one game, the same shot was deflected by the same Dman 2 times, a few games later the same shot was deflected by one Dman 3(!) times. That's some solid physics right there.
In another game a player fired a backhander, only to then deflect his own backhander in the following second. Meaning that he presumably shot it so slow he outskated it and then deflected it...or something. Working as intended!
Finally the singular goal scored from a deflection wasn't given to the player who deflected it. It was given to the original shooter, meaning I can't even prove with 100% certainty that a single deflection was scored. But the final event in the Play-by-Play before the goal was "The shot looked to have taken a deflection off <pl>" which is tied to the EVENT_RICOCHET_SHOT in events_eng.cfg so it probably means that even if a deflection goal is scored, it won't officially count as one anyways.
So in conclusion this means that I was right in feeling a bit hard done by whenever I saw a player gain +1 from Shooting training only to realize it was +1 Deflection. Almost as fun as when someone who isn't a Center gains +1 Faceoff from their Off. Skill training.
Naturally the samplesize is far, far too small to be irrefutable proof that the attribute is absolute trash. But it would need to improve so much over the remaining months to actually become useful. At just over 2 attempted deflections per game, even if a 20 deflection player would have a 100% chance to score from them (which he clearly won't) the chance of him being the person attempting them isn't exactly something you'd bet on. Very roughly estimated on a forward with 15min ice time he'd be on the ice for 1/4 of those deflections, and there'd be a 1/3 (3 forwards) that he be the one in position to actually deflect it, you end up with in the region of a 1/12 chance that the deflection attribute will even be used AT ALL. Also note that those 2 attempted deflections per game are for both teams combined. So he'd have a 1/12 chance to get to use the deflection attribute once per game. At that point even with 100% chance to score from it, the attribute would just be too insignificant to matter. Across an 82 game NHL season you'd look at about 7 attempts to deflect for that player. And since 1 deflection isn't a 0% chance to succeed, and 20 isn't a 100%, whatever difference in deflection there would be in between the two would ultimately be pretty pointless. Sure all goals help, but wouldn't you rather have that attribute point in Wristshot or Slapshot, you know those attributes your forwards actually use multiple times per game.
If anyone has had any luck using some form of tactical setup with funnel on the PP and overload slot with some kind of players that really excel at deflections, I'd love to hear about it. But really, it looks like this part of the game engine needs some love.