How to value defensive performance.

Metatron · Post by **Metatron** » Fri Feb 25, 2011 8:14 pm

So I'm in year three of a game based off a mod with the 2010/11 rosters. Over the course of the season Ethan Moreau started off on my third line and eventually dropped to my fourth and served as a regular healthy scratch over the stretch run. The reason for this was primarily his Match Rating. I didn't expect a lot of points or fights from him. But I had hoped for a decent +/- and an averge rating over 7. He hovered around even for the season and an average rating in the mid sixes.

I had been convinced his season was a bust.

Then he finished third for the Selke Trophy.

And I stared at the screen for a long time, eyes squinted and suspicious. But it wasn't an illusion. He was up for a major award.

There's only one answer: I have no idea how to judge if my defensive forwards and my defensive defensemen are doing their job well. It doesn't seem to be reflected in their average rating.

So... how do I do that?

23qwerty · Post by **23qwerty** » Fri Feb 25, 2011 11:15 pm

Metatron wrote:So I'm in year three of a game based off a mod with the 2010/11 rosters. Over the course of the season Ethan Moreau started off on my third line and eventually dropped to my fourth and served as a regular healthy scratch over the stretch run. The reason for this was primarily his Match Rating. I didn't expect a lot of points or fights from him. But I had hoped for a decent +/- and an averge rating over 7. He hovered around even for the season and an average rating in the mid sixes.

I had been convinced his season was a bust.

Then he finished third for the Selke Trophy.

And I stared at the screen for a long time, eyes squinted and suspicious. But it wasn't an illusion. He was up for a major award.

There's only one answer: I have no idea how to judge if my defensive forwards and my defensive defensemen are doing their job well. It doesn't seem to be reflected in their average rating.

So... how do I do that?

Hits, shot blocks, giveaways, takeaways.

IslesEnforcer · Post by **IslesEnforcer** » Sat Feb 26, 2011 12:21 am

I know how you feel. I won the Norris Trophy with Adrian Aucoin, who was a -15 nothing spectacular pointswise, and on a last place team.

Go figure.

Post by **archibalduk** » Sat Feb 26, 2011 11:19 am

The standard stats categories that you see quoted on the TV, internet, etc (e.g. G, A, Pts, +/- and PIM) really aren't geared towards gauging defensive performance. I'm not really very keen on the +/- rating seeing as it's a more reflection of the player's line(s) as a whole rather than his individual performance.

Average ratings are a great indicator of general performance but clearly isn't defence-specific. The stats suggested by 23qwerty seem your best bet.

Metatron · Post by **Metatron** » Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:10 am

Thanks all, I appreciate the input. Give aways are a negative stat, yes? The lower the better?

Also if my defensive forwards are playing 3rd/4th line minutes then I would expect their hits and SBs etc to be lower than, say, a defensively responcible first line player who's playing over 20 minutes a game. Does anyone have an idea of what a statline for a performing defensive forward would look like playing between 8-14 min per game?

Post by **B. Stinson** » Mon Feb 28, 2011 7:27 am

Metatron wrote:Thanks all, I appreciate the input. Give aways are a negative stat, yes? The lower the better?

Definitely. A Giveaway is when a player turns the puck over to the other team.

mig174 · Post by **mig174** » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:18 pm

Awards always seem buggy to me. And I really wouldn't worry about defensive players in this game. This game is very much about offense and having a good goalie. You can literally dominate with a good 1st and 2nd offensive line, poor to average D (think AHLers on the 3rd line), and a goalie with good mentals and 17+ in technicals. I'm currently sitting atop the league with the Sens having Kuba, Volchenkov, De Vries, Campoli, Picard/Carkner and Quincey playing in front of Leclaire and Roloson. One of the lowest GAAs, mostly because the forward lines keep the puck in the offensive zone most of the time.

As long as AvR > 7.5 for a player on the top three lines, you know he's playing well and having a positive impact. Hunt for players with pants atts but high AvR (i.e. high hidden atts) to round out the bottom lines with quality players.

RomaGoth · Post by **RomaGoth** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 9:04 pm

mig174 wrote:Awards always seem buggy to me. And I really wouldn't worry about defensive players in this game. This game is very much about offense and having a good goalie.

Totally agree with this. It is one of the few problems I have with this game too. I prefer defensive hockey (not the trap either, just good defense), and as a fan of the Red Wings I am beyond frustrated when Datsyuk isn't even mentioned for the Selke trophy, instead it goes to some guy I never heard of on a terrible team. The Norris trophy is all about the d-man with the most points at the end of the year, and the Vezina is usually centered around the goalie with the most wins/shutouts, regardless of GAA/Save %.

Yes, this game is all about offense and it is reflected, at least in my games, by the dozen or more players each year with over 100 points (Afinogenov....really??).

Aaahh well, I still love this game! (sorry for rambling a little)

Metatron · Post by **Metatron** » Tue Mar 08, 2011 12:36 am

Yeah, I know you can dominate with offense only. But I don't really want to.

For me the fun is in building a team with differnt roles and funtions to it. So jamming in as many offensive players as possible limited only by my cap space isn't really all that enjoyable.

But, as you guys, pointed out the game isn't really geared for D. To the point where it's hard to even determine what good D looks like in terms of stats.

I definately don't think Average Rating is a worthwhile tool for judging a bottom nine forward. AvR, much like everything else in the game, is geared towards the O. You clearly get a huge boost to your Match Rating for scoring a goal or multiple points. The thing is that even if your third line guy is the two way type he's just not going to score as many points in the 10:14 he plays that he (let alone your stars) are going to put up in the 22:30 eaten up on the top line. That problem is compounded if your Two-way 3rd liner is on the PK and whoever he's being compared to on the top line is on the PP.

So AvR is only useful for top six guys, really. If you grab a guy with a high AvR who was playing 15 min a game on the Islanders or whatever and he ends up seeing 9 min a game on your team your gonna see a pretty big drop in his AvR even if he's playing just as well.

Now if you could filter to just guys who played under 15 min per game, then AvR might be a more useful tool. But even then you'd end up with an offensive minded bottom nine. If you could filter by minutes then look at SB, Hits and Take Aways that would prob be your best bet...

Can you do that if you export to spreadsheet?

How to value defensive performance.

How to value defensive performance.

Re: How to value defensive performance.

Re: How to value defensive performance.