Improving the NHL Current Abilities - What do you think?

[archibalduk]

For the past few seasons we've been generating Current Ability (CA) ratings for players using a clever spreadsheet by Shadd666 called the ShaddSheet. It has been extremely helpful in generating CAs particularly for those lesser known leagues where users don't have enough knowledge to rate the players themselves. It does however have its drawbacks (e.g. CAs for defencemen are based solely on +/- which is less than desirable). Thus I've been working on creating from scratch a new ShaddSheet which will hopefully generate more reliable CAs for those leagues where there are a range of stats available.

To get things started, I've been concentrating on the NHL as it's a league that most of the community are familiar with. The sheet is still in its early stages and needs a great deal of improvement. I thought it might be useful to post some of the CAs in this thread so that I can get feedback from a large portion of the community. I've posted below the top 20 players with their CAs generated by the ShaddSheet for you to take a look at and post your feedback - i.e. are there players with too high/low CAs?

The table below will give you an idea of the sort of CAs different players should be getting in the NHL:

[table][tr][th]Description[/th][th]Current Ability[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Top[/td][td]190[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Good[/td][td]160[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Average[/td][td]120[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Poor[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][/table]

Goaltenders
[table][tr][th][/th][th][/th][th][/th][th]CA Rating[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Tim[/td][td]Thomas[/td][td]BOS[/td][td]186[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Henrik[/td][td]Lundqvist[/td][td]NYR[/td][td]185[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Pekka[/td][td]Rinne[/td][td]NSH[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Carey[/td][td]Price[/td][td]MTL[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Roberto[/td][td]Luongo[/td][td]VAN[/td][td]179[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jonathan[/td][td]Quick[/td][td]LAK[/td][td]177[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ilya[/td][td]Bryzgalov[/td][td]PHX[/td][td]176[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Antti[/td][td]Niemi[/td][td]SJS[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Cam[/td][td]Ward[/td][td]CAR[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Marc-Andre[/td][td]Fleury[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Miikka[/td][td]Kiprusoff[/td][td]CGY[/td][td]172[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Corey[/td][td]Crawford[/td][td]CHI[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Kari[/td][td]Lehtonen[/td][td]DAL[/td][td]170[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Miller[/td][td]BUF[/td][td]170[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jaroslav[/td][td]Halak[/td][td]STL[/td][td]170[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Tomas[/td][td]Vokoun[/td][td]FLA[/td][td]167[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Martin[/td][td]Brodeur[/td][td]NJD[/td][td]167[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dwayne[/td][td]Roloson[/td][td]TBL[/td][td]163[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Michal[/td][td]Neuvirth[/td][td]WSH[/td][td]163[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Braden[/td][td]Holtby[/td][td]WSH[/td][td]162[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jonas[/td][td]Hiller[/td][td]ANA[/td][td]162[/td][/tr][/table]

Defencemen
[table][tr][th][/th][th][/th][th][/th][th]CA Rating[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Duncan[/td][td]Keith[/td][td]CHI[/td][td]185[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dan[/td][td]Boyle[/td][td]SJS[/td][td]185[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Mike[/td][td]Green[/td][td]WSH[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Zdeno[/td][td]Chara[/td][td]BOS[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Alexander[/td][td]Edler[/td][td]VAN[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jay[/td][td]Bouwmeester[/td][td]CGY[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Drew[/td][td]Doughty[/td][td]LAK[/td][td]182[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Christian[/td][td]Ehrhoff[/td][td]VAN[/td][td]181[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Shea[/td][td]Weber[/td][td]NSH[/td][td]181[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Marc[/td][td]Staal[/td][td]NYR[/td][td]181[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Lubomir[/td][td]Visnovsky[/td][td]ANA[/td][td]181[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Suter[/td][td]NSH[/td][td]180[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dennis[/td][td]Wideman[/td][td]WSH[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Kris[/td][td]Letang[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Nicklas[/td][td]Lidstrom[/td][td]DET[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Joni[/td][td]Pitkanen[/td][td]CAR[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Keith[/td][td]Yandle[/td][td]PHX[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Brent[/td][td]Seabrook[/td][td]CHI[/td][td]177[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dion[/td][td]Phaneuf[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]177[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Stephane[/td][td]Robidas[/td][td]DAL[/td][td]177[/td][/tr][/table]

Forwards
[table][tr][th][/th][th][/th][th][/th][th]CA Rating[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Sidney[/td][td]Crosby[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]190[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Daniel[/td][td]Sedin[/td][td]VAN[/td][td]189[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Corey[/td][td]Perry[/td][td]ANA[/td][td]188[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Martin[/td][td]St Louis[/td][td]TBL[/td][td]188[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Getzlaf[/td][td]ANA[/td][td]184[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Henrik[/td][td]Sedin[/td][td]VAN[/td][td]183[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Steven[/td][td]Stamkos[/td][td]TBL[/td][td]181[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Alex[/td][td]Ovechkin[/td][td]WSH[/td][td]180[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Brad[/td][td]Richards[/td][td]DAL[/td][td]180[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Teemu[/td][td]Selanne[/td][td]ANA[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jarome[/td][td]Iginla[/td][td]CGY[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Kesler[/td][td]VAN[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Pavel[/td][td]Datsyuk[/td][td]DET[/td][td]177[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Anze[/td][td]Kopitar[/td][td]LAK[/td][td]176[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Nicklas[/td][td]Backstrom[/td][td]WSH[/td][td]175[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Henrik[/td][td]Zetterberg[/td][td]DET[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Derek[/td][td]Roy[/td][td]BUF[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Patrick[/td][td]Kane[/td][td]CHI[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jordan[/td][td]Staal[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jonathan[/td][td]Toews[/td][td]CHI[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Eric[/td][td]Staal[/td][td]CAR[/td][td]172[/td][/tr][/table]

Let me know what you think.

[archibalduk]

I've updated the defencemen table because I'd incorrectly ordered the players in the table. Now that I see the table correctly ordered, I can see there's too many defencemen with high ratings. I'll need to tone them down a little.

[CeeBee]

Great idea, Arch Nice not to see Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin as the top three on the list of forwards too. And yeah, probably too many highly rated d-men. Still, would be great to see dmen rated on more than +/-

[timmy_t]

My first thought is that Ovechkin should still be in the 190's. I just don't see 7 forwards with better PA than him. The problem is the PA of the other players on his line, ie Backstrom and Semin. Remember, Bruce Boudreau had them all playing defensively this season.

Yeah, I would leave Ovechkin in the 190's...

[bruins72]

I'd be curious to see what kind of results would be achieved if you simmed 3 seasons with these guys with these CAs. Would they be similar to their real life results? If they're off maybe, they'd need to be adjusted to be better or worse? I have a feeling that if these guys have these CA, they might produce quite a bit more points than they do in real life.

[Midas]

I'd knock them all down another 10 and definitely not spread the Sedins so far apart. They're back-to-back Art Ross winners with a difference in but a few points with off-setting injuries; they're about as freakishly similar as NHL players can possibly get. But lemme know how this goes.

[bestrafer7]

I think other NHL statistics can be added to the equation as well. Don't stop at just G, A, Pts and +/-. With the NHL and AHL sites having very comprehensive statistics, add in shots on goal, shooting percentage, faceoffs, minutes played (especially for d-men), giveaways, takeaways, etc... Make this as accurate as possible for the NHL. The OHL, QMJHL and WHL have minutes played as well. That would be a really great addition, especially to determine future abilities of players.

[bestrafer7]

Also, Datsyuk is the best two-way player in the NHL..

[archibalduk]

Thanks for the comments. I hope to spend some more time this weekend fine-tuning things.

As for the stats used, we've used a great deal more than just the basic G, A, Pts and +/-. We've also used stats such as ATOI, SHTOI/G, blocked shots per game and takeaways per game.

[Círyatan]

Archi, I glanced through the CA values you posted and it struck me that some (a lot) of them are freakishly high. I really think that if you follow Bill's advice and sim forward a couple of seasons, you might get some strange results.

I would put only two guys in the whole history of the NHL at CA 200, and that's Gretzky and Lemieux. From the current active flock of players two, Crosby and Ovechkin, have consistently over a couple of seasons shown that their level of skill is a notch above the rest, and that should put them around 190. The Sedins, Datsyuks, Zetterbergs, Keiths, Cháras, Lundqvists, Millers, etc. might be somewhere around 180, maybe (maybe) 180-185. The rest? I don't want to go player-by-player, just throwing in a couple of thoughts, but seeing guys like Bryzgalov (176), Niemi (174), Crawford (171) over Ryan Miller (170)... yeah, it needs some tweaking.

The idea is really really good, but I think we're still way off with it.

[archibalduk]

I've been working on the spreadsheet some more in order to get a better range of CAs for defencemen and forwards. I also took a look at the goalies but I'm not sure what else to do with them at this stage.

Just to clarify that the spreadsheet is generating CAs based solely on the 2010/11 regular season stats. For example, Ovechkin finished 7th in total Pts and 8th in ATOI. This is largely why his CA is the 10th highest for forwards. I agree that he deserves a higher CA when you consider his raw skill/talent, but for the 10/11 season his CA shouldn't be the highest. To counteract this, the final CA for each player would be based upon each player's stats for the past three seasons. The same goes for the goalies - Miller has a lower CA for 2010/11 because his stats are lower than the likes of Bryzgalov and Niemi. Again, this would hopefully be counteracted once we take into account performance from 2008/09 and 2009/10.

I totally agree about trying a sim of 3+ seasons (ideally multiple tests) to see what sort of effects we get. We can't use these CAs in something like the Manimal update without it being well tested. Once the spreadsheet has been finalised then I'll be creating a test DB.

Here are the new CAs:

Defencemen
[table][tr][th][/th][th][/th][th]CA Rating[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Alexander[/td][td]Edler[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dan[/td][td]Boyle[/td][td]178[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Christian[/td][td]Ehrhoff[/td][td]177[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Zdeno[/td][td]Chara[/td][td]176[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Mike[/td][td]Green[/td][td]176[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Duncan[/td][td]Keitd[/td][td]175[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Lubomir[/td][td]Visnovsky[/td][td]175[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dan[/td][td]Hamhuis[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Nicklas[/td][td]Lidstrom[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Kris[/td][td]Letang[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Drew[/td][td]Doughty[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Shea[/td][td]Weber[/td][td]172[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Suter[/td][td]172[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Kevin[/td][td]Bieksa[/td][td]172[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Dennis[/td][td]Wideman[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Whitney[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jay[/td][td]Bouwmeester[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Kimmo[/td][td]Timonen[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Chris[/td][td]Pronger[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Marc[/td][td]Staal[/td][td]171[/td][/tr][/table]

Forwards
[table][tr][th][/th][th][/th][th]CA Rating[/th][/tr]
[tr][td]Sidney[/td][td]Crosby[/td][td]190[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Daniel[/td][td]Sedin[/td][td]186[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Martin[/td][td]St Louis[/td][td]183[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Corey[/td][td]Perry[/td][td]183[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Kesler[/td][td]181[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Henrik[/td][td]Sedin[/td][td]179[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Ryan[/td][td]Getzlaf[/td][td]179[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Steven[/td][td]Stamkos[/td][td]177[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Alex[/td][td]Ovechkin[/td][td]176[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Brad[/td][td]Richards[/td][td]175[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Teemu[/td][td]Selanne[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jarome[/td][td]Iginla[/td][td]174[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Pavel[/td][td]Datsyuk[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Jordan[/td][td]Staal[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Nicklas[/td][td]Backstrom[/td][td]173[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Henrik[/td][td]Zetterberg[/td][td]171[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Patrick[/td][td]Marleau[/td][td]170[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Anze[/td][td]Kopitar[/td][td]170[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Derek[/td][td]Roy[/td][td]170[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]Patrick[/td][td]Kane[/td][td]170[/td][/tr][/table]

[nino33]

Hello

I find this thread very interesting.....I've often wondered if the "built in game requirements/mechanics" of EHM required maintaining a relatively similar overall talent pool to the default version.....BUT I've also read about a lot of editing/adjusting that was done to those default rosters when the game first came out.

For the 1974 db I worrried about working hard on a db only to have it be basically "unplayable" and not enjoyable because of the player ratings...the default version only has 26 players worldwide with a CA between 170-200 (and no one above 190...Crosby, Jagr, Kiprusoff, Ovechkin and Thorton were all rated 185-189). Lidas 3.1 rosters has 28 players worldwide with a CA 170-200 (with Ovechkin at the top at 190). The examples in this thread seem to be looking to double the number of players with a CA of 170-200....is the desire to increase the talent pool?

FYI the 1974 db currently has 30 NHL players wiith a CA 170-200 (and no one over 190) plus the Europeans/Russians...

Regards

P.S. Really looking forward to an updated Shaddsheet

[archibalduk]

For the 1974 db I worrried about working hard on a db only to have it be basically "unplayable" and not enjoyable because of the player ratings...the default version only has 26 players worldwide with a CA between 170-200 (and no one above 190...Crosby, Jagr, Kiprusoff, Ovechkin and Thorton were all rated 185-189). Lidas 3.1 rosters has 28 players worldwide with a CA 170-200 (with Ovechkin at the top at 190). The examples in this thread seem to be looking to double the number of players with a CA of 170-200....is the desire to increase the talent pool?

That's an extremely good question and a very good point. It's certainly not my intention to increase the talent pool. My intention is to create a mathematical way in which to calculate CAs. The main aim is to use it for those unknown minor/junior league players (such as those in the NCAA) where it's impossible to rate them However, the starting point is to get something decent for the NHL which can then be used as a basis for creating one for those little-known players.

It seems the result of my current mathematical method is, as you rightly point out, resulting in more players rated 170-200. I'm going to need to test the CAs to find out how exactly this changes things. If anything, I'd rather see a slightly more compressed range of CAs so as to avoid too many overrated players (such as Niittymaki who was somewhat overrated a few seasons ago).

[nino33]

I recall reading that CA is more a "governing agent" that acts upon the Attributes.....the idea that "yes you might be rated 18 in Pokecheck but you're still a 60 CA player" - the "governing agent" factor is this 18 Pokecheck player would not be poking the puck away from top caliber pro players...right? This "governing agent" idea where CA acts upon the attributes...is this true? Is that how you would define CA?

[archibalduk]

You're right; the CA is in some ways a "governing agent".

In essence, the CA is the overall rating of how good a player is, based on a scale of 1-200. However, it also acts as a control over the player's technical attributes. EHM uses some sort of mathematical formula to calculate the ideal average technical attribute rating a player should have based upon their CA. Ideally all technical attributes should be roughly no more than six plus/minus the ideal average.

If any of a player's technical attribute rating are set to zero then EHM will generate them in a way that maintains the ideal average of technical attributes based on his CA.

If a player's average technical attribute rating is too high or low for his CA then EHM will adjust the attributes in order to correct it.

[adawxawx]

I dont like these ratings

[AaronRStanley]

Other than seeming a touch high, I don't see any problem with the CA's, other than perhaps Marc-Andre Fleury and Hiller being too low. But that could be due to CA's being generated from a down year.